Thursday, August 11, 2011

Failure to hold a break on QQQ

The QQQ's has failed to hold on to highs after the break of the $53 area. This shows there is heavy selling pressure and it looks like the market could have a rough time recovering losses. I was looking for swing plays that could take advantage of a market bounce and couldn't find any good risk/reward trades. The market is just to volatile to take swing trades at this point so daytrades come in handy in staying nimble and bringing in profits. I posted a couple day trades on SODA and CREE earlier today that worked to perfect. This type of enviornment is where it pays to be an all around investor and trader taking advantage of the different waves of opportunity the market provides.

I believe if the market could break and hold above the $53.50 area in the QQQ's, we could see the market try to test the upper resistance near $56. Any failure and break below $50 in the QQQ's at this point is a very bearish sign which will bring alot of panicked sellers into the market since at this point. There are many stops sitting below the $50 area and a break of that area will change my bias to bearish.


I definitely have my shopping list out and looking for opportunities to take advantage of this move in my long term trades. This is a great time to watch those penny stocks and target those value plays.

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Money in the bank! Solid day on SODA and CREE Summary

Daytrades were posted in real-time with updates. I don't usually like to post daytrades but I really liked these plays and felt that they would be excellent lessons in how to daytrade correctly while seeing them unfold before your eyes. So you get the opportunity to see what I see at the same time as the trade unfolds. It is very difficult to manage a trade and update the blog in real-time while taking pictures so I tried my best to update quickly.

Now to the summary:

CREE - Profits banked at $36.31 banking an average profit of 3X risk. This position fell alittle short of our 90 cent target area and I was to busy to update the trade here on the blog so I will just use the last post to update the blog which was when I moved the stop to $36.31 if you were following my techniques you have gotten out at $36.55.


I highlighted in green the arrows I was looking at for a trigger. The blue arrow represents the trigger and the red arrow was when the final lot was exited.


SODA - Exited the final piece at $46.95 bringing our profits to an average of $4/share. This is about 1.3X our risk but had an opportunity to trail it tighter when you hit $48.48 but again wasn't able to update the trade in the blog so I just used my last post to update the trade here.


The blue arrow was the trigger and the red arrow was when the final trade was exited. It took us two looks until we got the right trigger since the first look was invalidated by taking out the low first before rallying which is my first post on this trade.

Like my comment yesterday on the market it is not uncommon to see a retest of the lows in stocks as well as in the market before the rally comes. The key is knowing which one to take.

I base my returns off multiples of risk because I believe that if I'm right just 50% of the time but average more than 1X my risk then over time I will make more money. So if I could get 2X or 3X risk on half my trades then I could make good money.

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CREE Profits in the bank on a nice daytrade

Banked 3x risk on CREE with a tight stop. move stop to breakeven at 36.11 sold 3/4ths of my position in the high 30 cent area. On these type of breakout plays I like to use tight entries to maximize returns. You have to let your winners run and worst case scenario the rest of the trade takes you out breakeven. Close the position near the end of day if our 5 min trail doesn't take us out.


There's a reason why I watched CREE all day to get the trigger and why the breakout was successful. Learn the techniques at investanomics.com

UPDATE:

Take profits on rest of position in CREE in the $46.90 - $47 areas stop now $46.31

SODA stop update

Move the stop on SODA to $45.90 below the 5min pivot locking in at least another $2 on our last quarter position left. Looking to take the rest of the position around the $49-50 area.


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UPDATE:

Move SODA stop to $46.95 to lock in profits

Cha-Ching on SODA taking a $2 move, taking only partial profit

I would take some profits here with the rest of my stop at breakeven using a 5min pivot trail. Nice $2 move that came within 15cents of taking us out at breakeven but held in. I think we could get more so will try to ride half into the close or my pivot trail gets taken out.


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UPDATE:

Taking another half of my posittion with a $4 profit quarter of my position left with $3 banked

move SODA stop now to breakeven

Time to move our SODA play to breakeven at 43.61 we don't want to see it fail at this point so worst case scenario is break even for us now.

CREE potential breakout

I'm watching CREE for a potential breakout move. The strong had a real strong opening and I believe this consolidation could be setting up for a nice breakout daytrade. Resistance is the $36 area so I want CREE to break above that to go long.


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SODA another shot

Buy SODA on a move above 43.60 with a stop below the low at 40.80 first target is the 20MA and trail the rest following my pivot trail method. If low is broken before our trigger then play is invalidated.


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SODA trade invalidated

SODA failed to give us our tigger and broke the low hitting 40.90 invalidating our play. There is a chance that this will bounce going into the afternoon session so keep and eye out.


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Day Trade on SODA

Take SODA on a 15min trigger, a 15min bar must close above 44.05 and a stop below the low at 41.15. This is only for a daytrade and must be closed before the end of the day. First target is 8ma second target is 20ma and big target is in the $50 area.


If the low gets taken out the trigger the play is invalid.

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